GDP numbers propel SENSEX

Defying expectation the stock market rose yesterday backed by, above expectations GDP numbers. The GDP registered a growth rate of 5.8% in the last quarter of FY’09 much lower than the previous year’s growth rate of 8.6% in the same quarter. The real GDP grew at 6.7% which was on the higher end of the 6.5%-6.7% growth projection given by the RBI in its monetary policy for the year 2009-10. The effect was felt in the stock market which saw the Sensex climb up 329 points to end up at 14,625, Nifty was up 111 points to close at 4448.

The very evident good sign from the GDP numbers is that the Government spending as a percentage contribution to the GDP has increased considerably over the last year. The government expenditure as a percentage to the GDP for the Q3 and Q4 stood at 13.1% and 14.3% for the FY’09 whereas it was 8.7% and 12% for the same period in FY’08.
The overall spending of the government stood at 11.6% of the GDP for the FY’09 compared to 10.1% for FY’08. These are clearly good signs as the Keynesian model points out that in case of a depression the Government should increase its consumption to give a boost to the manufacturing sector. Although there was a contraction in the manufacturing output by 1.4% but things would have been worse if the government spending had subsided. Another encouraging factor seems to be the rate of gross capital formation which showed an increase to 34.8% from last year’s figure of 34%.

There are clear signs signaling an economic recovery and a GDP growth rate between 5.5-6% for FY’10 is clearly on the cards, but let’s sits back with our fingers crossed and the hope that the economy still has some more pleasant surprises up its sleeves.

Bajaj Auto Finance

One of my favourite stocks is Bajaj Auto Finance, the stock has rallied almost a 50% in the past one month.The stock is currently trading @ Rs 126 and has a book value of close to Rs 290. The company has performed fairly well over the past one year. The FY09 Q4 net profit stood at Rs 15.06 crores versus Rs 4.57 crores in the same quarter for the FY08. The company is planning to leverage on the XCD segement in the 125 cc category and is planning to come out with a gearless scooter next year. The stock has a 52 week high of Rs 275. The bike segment may grow from anywhere between 3-7 % this fiscal year. For FY'09 the net profit stood at Rs 33.92 crores an increase of 69% over the last year's figure of Rs 20.12 crores.The company has declared a dividend of Rs 2 per share.

Trading Strategy: Buy in Dips

Disclaimer: All the views expressed in this blog are based on my analysis and investor's discretion is required before investing in the above stocks

Bharti Airtel

One of my picks include Bharti Airtel. Though the stock has rallied from the level of Rs 580 a couple of months back but the stock still looks good at the current levels of Rs 770. The stock has experienced some beating in the last few sessions because the final result of the discussion between Bharti and MTN is not out yet. Bharti has made a bold move of moving out of the Indian subcontinent by acquiring a stake in MTN. The MTN deal and the deal with Manchester United all signal towards the company going global. The company has crossed 100 million subscribers this month and the current price offered by Bharti for MTN seems to be lucrative. MTN has operation in 21 countries across Africa and Middle East and would help Bharti consolidate its footing in these markets. Fundamentally the stock seems very attractive from the long term perspective.


Disclaimer: All the views expressed in this blog are based on my analysis and investor's discretion is required before investing in the above stocks

Market Resilient

The markets yet again showed signs of resilience after the long unwinding ahead of the end of the May series yesterday. Nifty was up 159 points to close at 4276 and the Sensex closed at 14109,up 520 points. The rally was a result of the positive global cues from the US which saw the consumer confidence index rise to 54.9 in May from 40.8 in April. This was above the expected levels of 42. Asia was strong today with the Topix gaining 1%, Hang Seng 5.26% and the Singapore Strait Times up 3%. Apart from the global cues, good news from within with the FM stating that the government would focus on infrastrucutre and the long pending reforms in the financial sector in this budget. Europe on the other hand is trading flat.

All the sectors were in the green today except the sugar sector which felt the heat after the FMC banned the trading in sugar futures.

Of the stocks i follow OM Meta Infrastructure was again locked at an upper 10% circuit. Bajaj Auto finance was up 4.25%, Hindustan zinc up by 3.36%, HDIL by 6.63%, L&T by 4.74%, ONGC by 8.93%, SBI by an odd 6% and Suzlon by another 3.4%.


Overall it was a good day for the market, however the Nifty seems to be showing some signs of resistance at the current 4300 levels.

The market could remain flat for the next couple of days

Om Metals Infra

This counter has seen exceptional movement in the last week. It has been locked at the upper circuit of 10% since the last 3 trading days. I started following this stock last month when it was trading at Rs 10.15 and since then the price has more than doubled to Rs 21.61. With a book value of Rs 34.01 and a 52 week high of Rs 41 this stock sure has some steam left to it. The company is a conglomerate having diverse business activities and interests related to Hydro mechanical equipments, turn key solutions for steel fabrication, Hydro power developments, Real Estate, Leasing, Finance, Entertainment centers, Hotels and tourism. The company has shown a net profit of Rs 10.45 crores for the december quarter which was almost 3 times the net profit for the previous year.The company had reserves to the tune of Rs 338 crores as on Dec'08 and a current market cap of Rs 205 crores.

Trading Strategy: Buy in dips.

Disclaimer: The blog mentions solely my analysis of the sector/company and the investor's discretion is advised from any trading perspective.